Moody's Investors Service on Friday raised India's growth projection for 2023 calendar year to 6.7 per cent on account of robust economic momentum. "Strong services expansion and capital expenditures propelled India's 7.8 per cent real GDP growth in the second (April-June) quarter from a year ago. "We have accordingly raised our 2023 calendar year growth forecast for India from 5.5 per cent to 6.7 per cent," Moody's said in its Global Macro Outlook. - el nino
Aggressive rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve could result in a flight of capital from emerging markets like India, says B Gopkumar, chief executive officer, Reliance Securities.
The Opposition is likely to raise the issues of fuel price hike, the Bhopal gas tragedy case, unrest in Kashmir and talks with Pakistan. It is also likely to attack the government over a series of train accidents in recent months, including the one today in West Bengal.
Left parties would target the Manmohan Singh government on issues of price rise and corruption during the Monsoon session, with the CPI on Thursday saying the ruling coalition has "completely failed" to fulfil promises made in Parliament.
Irregular rainfall and a pick-up in commodity costs are expected to weigh on the demand and margins of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies. Most companies reported a sharp expansion in gross margins in the April-June quarter (first quarter, or Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24), given the lower prices of key raw materials and earlier price hikes. Furthermore, there were expectations that cost savings being passed on could reflect in volume growth going forward. However, these hopes could be dashed if demand recovery, especially in the rural segment, stalls, and gains on the raw material front start to recede.
A monsoon holiday can be cheaper because of discounts.
The rain gods, it appears, will play a role in the decision of fast moving consumer goods companies to either raise or maintain prices of their products in the second quarter of the financial year.
The government has also extended till August 31 the repayment date of short-term crop loan of up to Rs 3 lakh for agriculture and allied activities. The decision, taken by the Cabinet headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, will give respite to farmers and also help them take a call on which kharif (summer) crop to grow as sowing picks up with the arrival of southwest monsoon.
Sugar is a key input for many of these companies and, since January this year, sugar prices have risen by over 40 per cent. In fact, there is further scope for increase with the weak monsoons. Further, imports too will be costlier this year despite being duty free, as international prices of sugar have reached a 28-year high because of heavy import demands from India and Mexico and lower harvesting in the top sugar-growing country Brazil.
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Diesel and cooking gas (LPG) prices are unlikely to be hiked even after the end of the Monsoon Session of Parliament next week as the government is wary of taking such a decision at a time when it already has political battles on hand.
The repo rate could be reduced by 50 bps in the current year.
The avoidable stresses and strains in ties helped in one way. It showed for the entire region how a matured India handled diplomatic relations, especially with a smaller and suspicious neighbour, with practised dignity and patience, unruffled by provocations in word, deed and action, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
Equity and oil markets can breathe easy for now, as the developments in Russia are unlikely to trigger a runaway rally in crude oil prices, said analysts. India, which imports nearly 80 per cent of its crude oil requirement, has been dependent on cheap Russian oil over the past few months to keep inflation - a sore point for the equity markets - in check. For the Indian markets that are expected to remain volatile amid these developments, analysts believe, the progress of monsoon, fund flows - both foreign institutional investor (FII) and domestic - and the upcoming corporate earnings season back home remain key.
The Monsoon session of Parliament beginning Monday is expected to be a tumultuous affair with opposition stacking up all ammunition ranging from price rise, fuel hike, Bhopal gas tragedy and the Indo-Pak talks to attack the government.
The government on Wednesday raised the minimum support price (MSP) of paddy marginally by Rs 72 per quintal to Rs 1,940 per quintal for the 2021-22 crop year, while the rates of pulses, oilseeds and cereals were hiked substantially. Among the commercial crops, the MSP of cotton was increased by Rs 211 per quintal to Rs 5,726 for medium staple variety, and by Rs 200 per quintal to Rs 6,025 for long-staple variety of cotton for the 2021-22 crop year (July-June). The decision taken by the Cabinet headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi will help farmers take a call on which kharif (summer) crop to grow as sowing picks with the spread of the Southwest monsoon in the coming weeks.
An increase in petrol, diesel, domestic cooking gas (LPG) and kerosene prices looks "imminent" after the Finance Ministry said it has no money to provide for fuel subsidy.
Left parties would launch an offensive in the forthcoming monsoon session of Parliament against the United Progressive Alliance government hiking prices of petroleum products, Communist Party of India-Marxist member of the Parliament Basudeb Acharya has said.
Foreign lender Royal Bank of Scotland on Thursday said RBI is likely to hike its policy rates by up to one percentage point this year even as the headline inflation is likely to fall to 6-7 per cent on the back of a good monsoon.
Nearly two-thirds of India's gold demand comes from rural areas where jewellery is a traditional store of wealth for millions who have no access to the formal banking system.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday retained India's growth forecast for the current fiscal at 6.3 per cent citing economic resilience despite tighter monetary policy and exports weakness, but upped year-end inflation projection on El Nino threat. The Indian economy grew 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of current fiscal on strong services sector activity and robust demand. "The Indian economy continues to show resilience despite tighter monetary policy and weakness in exports, with growth outpacing other countries in the region," Fitch said, while projecting 6.3 per cent growth for current fiscal (April-March), and 6.5 per cent for next fiscal.
'A weak monsoon always spells disaster. But it's too early to have a pessimistic view.'
The fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector has underperformed the Nifty over the past year as its 20 per cent return is trumped by 29 per cent of the benchmark index. The FMCG index saw a 2.2 per cent drop in the last session, while the Nifty lost 1 per cent. FMCG is seen as a defensive segment. The demand for staples like personal care products, groceries and snacks tend to be stable. FMCG companies are consistent dividend-payers.
S&P Global Ratings on Monday retained India's GDP growth forecast at 6 per cent saying it will be the fastest growing economy among Asia Pacific nations. The GDP growth forecast for the current and the next fiscal has been kept unchanged from the forecast made in March partly on account of domestic resilience. "We see the fastest growth at about 6 per cent in India, Vietnam, and the Philippines, S&P Global Ratings said in its quarterly economic update for Asia-Pacific.
Experts said the higher pay out will boost consumption demand.
Riding on a bull run, equity investors became richer by Rs 128.77 lakh crore in the 2023-24 fiscal, driven by robust fundamentals of the Indian economy, increased investment inflows and promising corporate earnings. After a muted performance in 2022-23, equity markets made a remarkable recovery in FY24, giving handsome returns to investors. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 14,659.83 points or 24.85 per cent in 2023-24.
Domestic-focused agricultural chemical (agrochem) companies could face near-term headwinds, given the worries on the El Nio effect on monsoons, higher inventory, and pressure on margins. Some of these were reflected in the October-December quarter (third quarter, or Q3) results of companies and may impact them in the current quarter (fourth quarter, or Q4) as well. Nuvama Research pointed out that the sector witnessed mixed performance during the quarter as global agrochem and domestic fertiliser companies maintained growth momentum, while adverse agronomical conditions and excess channel inventory weighed on domestic market volume offtake.
It was the second straight week of gains for the benchmarks.
Government's effective supply-side measures and commendable commitment to fiscal consolidation will have a salutary impact on inflation, says the RBI report.
The government is unlikely to raise petrol and diesel prices before the end of the current monsoon session of Parliament and may moderate the hike with a dose of excise duty cut, a top official said on Wednesday.
Several members had moved adjournment motions to raise the issue, but Speaker Meira Kumar said she has not accepted the demand.
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India decisively withstood global headwinds in 2023 and is likely to remain as the world's fastest-growing major economy on the back of growing demand, moderate inflation, stable interest rate regime and robust foreign exchange reserves. Despite widespread pessimism witnessed among the developed nations and the worsening geopolitical situation, India recorded a gross domestic product (GDP) expansion of 6.1 per cent in the March quarter. The growth moved up to 7.8 per cent in the June quarter and was 7.6 per cent in the September quarter. For the first six months of this fiscal, the growth was 7.7 per cent.
The decision, taken by the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, comes less than a year before next general election.
Kami Rita Sherpa, 53, scaled the 8,849 metre (29,032-foot) mountain early in the morning along the traditional southeast ridge route, guiding a foreign climber.
The finance ministry on Thursday raised concerns over the possible impact of El Nio conditions on India this year, saying if recent forecasts came true, the country could see lower agricultural output and higher inflation. "Some meteorological agencies predict the return of El Nio conditions in India this year. "If these predictions are accurate, then monsoon rains could be deficient, leading to lower agricultural output and higher prices," the ministry said in its monthly economic review.
Financial services firm AnandRathi analysed the key points of the policy soon after it was announced.
'Banks will continue to increase FD rates to attract more deposits and meet the increasing demand for credit.'
Dealers have stocked up vehicles in the run-up to a price hike, which is expected to be announced by leading players some time this month.
HDFC Bank was the top loser in the Sensex pack, falling 2.99 per cent, followed by Adani Ports at 2.87 per cent.
