Even as cement companies continue to announce ambitious expansion plans, analysts turn cautious over the sector as incremental supply is expected to coincide with a weak demand growth period, and other headwinds of higher fuel costs, weak monsoons and general elections. In August, JSW Cement said it will take its current 19 million tonnes (MT) capacity to 60 MT in the next five years. The country's top producers have massive expansion plans underway - UltraTech Cement targeting 200 MT, Adani Cement aiming for 140 MT and Dalmia Cement planning for 110-130 MT.
Auto industry volumes have grown by 2.5 per cent overall, led by domestic sales of three-wheelers, two-wheelers and passenger vehicles (PVs) in the first quarter of this financial year. Analysts predict an 18 per cent growth in revenues for automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and profit growth of 69 per cent year-on-year (YoY). However, on a sequential basis, a decline in revenues as well as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) margins is expected.
The move came a day after Parliament approved two agriculture sector-reform bills which have been bitterly opposed by the opposition parties like Congress and TMC.
'There is no immediate threat to the government, and they would prefer the growth agenda.'
'If rate cuts happen, bond yields will come down and investors will make mark-to-market capital gains on them.'
With another quarter of steady growth in demand, cement companies are expected to report strong year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth in earnings, according to analysts. The September quarter (Q2FY24) also witnessed a resumption of price hikes in certain markets. UltraTech Cement, India's largest cement producer, reported a 15 per cent Y-o-Y increase in cement sales in the country for the quarter under review.
Aggressive rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve could result in a flight of capital from emerging markets like India, says B Gopkumar, chief executive officer, Reliance Securities.
The Opposition is likely to raise the issues of fuel price hike, the Bhopal gas tragedy case, unrest in Kashmir and talks with Pakistan. It is also likely to attack the government over a series of train accidents in recent months, including the one today in West Bengal.
Left parties would target the Manmohan Singh government on issues of price rise and corruption during the Monsoon session, with the CPI on Thursday saying the ruling coalition has "completely failed" to fulfil promises made in Parliament.
A monsoon holiday can be cheaper because of discounts.
The rain gods, it appears, will play a role in the decision of fast moving consumer goods companies to either raise or maintain prices of their products in the second quarter of the financial year.
Sugar is a key input for many of these companies and, since January this year, sugar prices have risen by over 40 per cent. In fact, there is further scope for increase with the weak monsoons. Further, imports too will be costlier this year despite being duty free, as international prices of sugar have reached a 28-year high because of heavy import demands from India and Mexico and lower harvesting in the top sugar-growing country Brazil.
Elevated food price-led inflation could become a sore point for markets, which they seem to be ignoring at current levels, observe analysts. Retail inflation in India - as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) - came in at a three-month high of 6.52 per cent in January 2023, compared with 5.72 per cent in December and 5.88 per cent in November 2022. The inflation print for February, according to Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda, will be critical for the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee.
The government has also extended till August 31 the repayment date of short-term crop loan of up to Rs 3 lakh for agriculture and allied activities. The decision, taken by the Cabinet headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, will give respite to farmers and also help them take a call on which kharif (summer) crop to grow as sowing picks up with the arrival of southwest monsoon.
Diesel and cooking gas (LPG) prices are unlikely to be hiked even after the end of the Monsoon Session of Parliament next week as the government is wary of taking such a decision at a time when it already has political battles on hand.
Earnings growth, attractive valuations and change in FPI flows from negative to positive over the next 12 months are some of the key triggers for an upside. "A poor monsoon, high inflation and further rate hike are some of the key risks
The repo rate could be reduced by 50 bps in the current year.
Moody's Investors Service on Friday raised India's growth projection for 2023 calendar year to 6.7 per cent on account of robust economic momentum. "Strong services expansion and capital expenditures propelled India's 7.8 per cent real GDP growth in the second (April-June) quarter from a year ago. "We have accordingly raised our 2023 calendar year growth forecast for India from 5.5 per cent to 6.7 per cent," Moody's said in its Global Macro Outlook. - el nino
Watch all the action from both Houses of Parliament
The Monsoon session of Parliament beginning Monday is expected to be a tumultuous affair with opposition stacking up all ammunition ranging from price rise, fuel hike, Bhopal gas tragedy and the Indo-Pak talks to attack the government.
Irregular rainfall and a pick-up in commodity costs are expected to weigh on the demand and margins of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies. Most companies reported a sharp expansion in gross margins in the April-June quarter (first quarter, or Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24), given the lower prices of key raw materials and earlier price hikes. Furthermore, there were expectations that cost savings being passed on could reflect in volume growth going forward. However, these hopes could be dashed if demand recovery, especially in the rural segment, stalls, and gains on the raw material front start to recede.
An increase in petrol, diesel, domestic cooking gas (LPG) and kerosene prices looks "imminent" after the Finance Ministry said it has no money to provide for fuel subsidy.
Left parties would launch an offensive in the forthcoming monsoon session of Parliament against the United Progressive Alliance government hiking prices of petroleum products, Communist Party of India-Marxist member of the Parliament Basudeb Acharya has said.
Foreign lender Royal Bank of Scotland on Thursday said RBI is likely to hike its policy rates by up to one percentage point this year even as the headline inflation is likely to fall to 6-7 per cent on the back of a good monsoon.
Nearly two-thirds of India's gold demand comes from rural areas where jewellery is a traditional store of wealth for millions who have no access to the formal banking system.
The government on Wednesday raised the minimum support price (MSP) of paddy marginally by Rs 72 per quintal to Rs 1,940 per quintal for the 2021-22 crop year, while the rates of pulses, oilseeds and cereals were hiked substantially. Among the commercial crops, the MSP of cotton was increased by Rs 211 per quintal to Rs 5,726 for medium staple variety, and by Rs 200 per quintal to Rs 6,025 for long-staple variety of cotton for the 2021-22 crop year (July-June). The decision taken by the Cabinet headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi will help farmers take a call on which kharif (summer) crop to grow as sowing picks with the spread of the Southwest monsoon in the coming weeks.
Equity and oil markets can breathe easy for now, as the developments in Russia are unlikely to trigger a runaway rally in crude oil prices, said analysts. India, which imports nearly 80 per cent of its crude oil requirement, has been dependent on cheap Russian oil over the past few months to keep inflation - a sore point for the equity markets - in check. For the Indian markets that are expected to remain volatile amid these developments, analysts believe, the progress of monsoon, fund flows - both foreign institutional investor (FII) and domestic - and the upcoming corporate earnings season back home remain key.
Experts said the higher pay out will boost consumption demand.
'A weak monsoon always spells disaster. But it's too early to have a pessimistic view.'
Fitch Ratings on Thursday retained India's growth forecast for the current fiscal at 6.3 per cent citing economic resilience despite tighter monetary policy and exports weakness, but upped year-end inflation projection on El Nino threat. The Indian economy grew 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of current fiscal on strong services sector activity and robust demand. "The Indian economy continues to show resilience despite tighter monetary policy and weakness in exports, with growth outpacing other countries in the region," Fitch said, while projecting 6.3 per cent growth for current fiscal (April-March), and 6.5 per cent for next fiscal.
The avoidable stresses and strains in ties helped in one way. It showed for the entire region how a matured India handled diplomatic relations, especially with a smaller and suspicious neighbour, with practised dignity and patience, unruffled by provocations in word, deed and action, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
It was the second straight week of gains for the benchmarks.
S&P Global Ratings on Monday retained India's GDP growth forecast at 6 per cent saying it will be the fastest growing economy among Asia Pacific nations. The GDP growth forecast for the current and the next fiscal has been kept unchanged from the forecast made in March partly on account of domestic resilience. "We see the fastest growth at about 6 per cent in India, Vietnam, and the Philippines, S&P Global Ratings said in its quarterly economic update for Asia-Pacific.
Government's effective supply-side measures and commendable commitment to fiscal consolidation will have a salutary impact on inflation, says the RBI report.
The government is unlikely to raise petrol and diesel prices before the end of the current monsoon session of Parliament and may moderate the hike with a dose of excise duty cut, a top official said on Wednesday.
The fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector has underperformed the Nifty over the past year as its 20 per cent return is trumped by 29 per cent of the benchmark index. The FMCG index saw a 2.2 per cent drop in the last session, while the Nifty lost 1 per cent. FMCG is seen as a defensive segment. The demand for staples like personal care products, groceries and snacks tend to be stable. FMCG companies are consistent dividend-payers.
Several members had moved adjournment motions to raise the issue, but Speaker Meira Kumar said she has not accepted the demand.
Domestic-focused agricultural chemical (agrochem) companies could face near-term headwinds, given the worries on the El Nio effect on monsoons, higher inventory, and pressure on margins. Some of these were reflected in the October-December quarter (third quarter, or Q3) results of companies and may impact them in the current quarter (fourth quarter, or Q4) as well. Nuvama Research pointed out that the sector witnessed mixed performance during the quarter as global agrochem and domestic fertiliser companies maintained growth momentum, while adverse agronomical conditions and excess channel inventory weighed on domestic market volume offtake.
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